Energetics developed a range of technology penetration scenarios to estimate the domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions impacts through 2050 of selected U.S. Department of Energy programs.

Client Need

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) needed to project the combined GHG emissions reductions from its energy efficiency and renewable energy programs. DOE already had estimates from each of its programs individually. However, differences in assumptions, models, baselines, and integrative effects between programs prevented DOE from being able to add the individual program estimates together.

Solution

For each of the DOE programs, Energetics constructed technology scenarios using consistent and defensible assumptions for future carbon prices, subsidy levels, and other key parameters. We input the scenarios, representing the logical extremes of a range of possible policy options, into an integrated MARKAL model to estimate the collective impact of the DOE programs.

Results

DOE was able to use data for projected GHG emission impacts attributable to a collection of their programs—not just impacts from individual programs—to inform policy recommendations and investment decisions.